Why Things RISE Before They FALL

Why Things RISE Before They FALL

More than a decade back, every week I was hopping on my weekly flightst between Mumbai and Hyderabad in India and I made sure all my domestic flights were via KINGFISHER. Just a few years after I completed my India project, I learned that Vijay Maliya, the high profile KINGFISHER owner ran away to the UK over debts of more than US$ 1 Billion.  This tragic fall should help explain Why Things RISE Before They FALL💎💎💎

Let's set aside that tragic KINGFISHER story.  Instead, let me share the JETSETTING lifestyle of someone I personally knew UP CLOSE.  Prior to the pandemic, he bragged [and I totally believe him] that he was logging an average of twenty four flights per year [mostly within the Middle East [with Dubai frequently one of two end-points].  As we speak now, sadly, that person has hit rock bottom, penniless literally speaking⏳⏳⏳

So, what explains trajectories that may seem to go up the farthest north only to take a deep nosedive, sometimes towards deep south with hopes of even recovering a long shot, if at all?  Simple explanation.  Once we have risen up to the top, humans generally become cocky a.k.a over-bearing, blustering, swaggering that becomes the very recipe of his downFALL📌📌📌

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From a statistical perspective, this is what LAW OF AVERAGES is all about which, in technical jargon is defined as 'the principle that supposes most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average'.  Depending on the context, it can be considered a valid commonsense observation or a misunderstanding in the science of probabilities.  Translating in layman's terms, we should be wary when the trajectory keeps zooming up because that is an anomaly✅✅✅

What's our FIX for this conundrum?  Let us remain hopeful and welcoming when things are on the upswing but if that trajectory seems to run unabated, better be wary because that may likely be an outlier that will be eventually corrected by the LAW OF AVERAGES.  Problem is, when that trajectory keeps zooming up, some of us tend to get ;hostaged' by it, wrongly thinking that that upswing is a legitimate one.  WHEN in fact and in truth, he himself CAN'T explain that trajectory.  WHAT is imperative is to be constantly aware that, more often, THINGS RISE BEFORE THEY FALL❗❗❗