Correlation Is Not Causation

 

CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION.  Oh Oh, WHAT a boring thread.  That's the initial reaction I anticipate now.  BUT given me some breathing room to shed light on my side. Firstly, you might wonder, WHAT does this got to do with our daily life?  My quick retort:  A LOT AS IN A LOT.  WHY? Everyday from the time we wake up and even WHEN we're deep asleep, a lot of things are going on and some of it seemingly have its ramifications to us [even WHEN we're asleep].  Seriously😡😡😡 

Let's face it.  Some things happening even at the other side of the globe can have its ramifications even to us across the globe.  WHEN a major Middle East conflict escalates into a full-blown war.  WHEN a major passage way in the international waters gets blockaded.  WHEN there is a supply embargo from an exporting country that impacts the importing country.  WHEN an organization's business performance plummets significantly and unable to recover even after a year.  Name it.  One too many things happening around WHICH can indirectly impact on us😡😡😡

So, WHERE's the beef?  The recurring mix-up happens WHEN some of us get used to [wrongly] believe that CORRELATION equates to CAUSATION.  That WHEN someone catches cold, it's because someone beside OR nearby him sneezed.  That WHEN children underperform in school, it's because their parent-financier WHO's working overseas 10,000 miles away, was NOT consistently providing the financial support in a timely manner.   That WHEN a country's economy nosedives, it's because the U.S. dollar was over-performing.  That WHEN a plurality of a third world country's population struggle in life, it's because they belong to the third world.  That WHEN someone hits the rough patches at work, it's because of an overly tough boss managing with a heavy hand❎❎❎

Truth of the matter, allow me to go back to the fact that CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION.  It's true, there are circumstances that tie-up two things together BUT it's NOT a conclusion that should prevail by default.  Take friendships as a relevant example,  WHY is it that some friendships flounder as fast as they sprouted WHEREAS there are enduring friendships that endure even a lifetime???

Our takeaway:  Much as we can talk about generalities, anything that happens between Tom, Dick and Harry remain unique for the most part.  WHEN Tom succeeds in life, it's NOT because of his close buddy Dick.  And WHEN Harry struggles in life, likely it's NOT because of his affinity to Tom and Dick.  Lesson here is for us to compartmentalize events in our life because more often than NOT, life takes its own course, very much akin to the waters starting from the streams finding their way towards the mouth of river because it goes out to the high seas.  YES dude, CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION😡😡😡

Correlation Is NOT Causation

Correlation Is NOT Causation

How often you [and me as well] would be correlating things and end up making an assumption that becomes conclusive [BUT very much shaky because that assumption CAN'T stand on its own].  Let's pry into typical 'GIRL's TALK' wherein a girl tells another girl that she had her hair 'rebonded' because she received her 13th month pay?  OR someone is dressed to a 'T' because he/she will attend a social event?  BUT Correlation Is NOT Causation📘📙📗

Fact is, CORRELATION does NOT imply CAUSATION.  And YET, this seems NOT to stop people from drawing casual inferences from correlational statements .  In fact, we show that people do in fact infer casuality from statements of association under minimal conditions.  Indeed, researches show that people draw pragmatic inferences from ambiguous OR incomplete utterances💥💥💥

Oh, let's have more relatable examples, like when your mobile phone freezes while sending text [SMS] messages.  We might be tempted to make an outright conclusion that your incessant texting caused your mobile phone to freeze.  BUT likely that is NOT the valid root cause.  It could be that your mobile phone's RAM memory is insufficient and that could be caused either by a low RAM memory OR even a high memory that was 'gobbled up' by another mobile app😉😉😉

Problem is, our global village is littered with CORRELATIONS getting equated to CAUSATION.  LIke people with bigger feet mean they are better readers?  LIke if people with fewer black and white TVs, global warming will worsen?  Like, WHEN a continent's name does NOT start with 'A' means that most people born there AREN'T white?  Like WHEN most people die in avalanches WHEN sales of snow chains go up?  We can go and on BUT such is that human frailty of adding 1 + 1💦💦💦

Our takeaway:  Sometimes we humans do have this tendency to either over-simplify a complex situation or conversely, we sometimes tend to complicate even the simplest situations.  Like drowning will NOT lead you to eat more ice cream and it is even highly unlikely that eating more ice cream will dramatically increase one's risk of drowning, so obviously, there can be a strong correlation between two variables without a direct casual relationship.  Conversely, there are correlations that strongly imply CAUSATION, like ice cream sales will shoot up because of high temperatures.  So, by and large, CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION [except except]💥💥💥