Recency Bias

Recency Bias

For us to be on the same page, let me quote how Recency Bias is defined in Wikipedia:  It is a COGNITIVE BIAS THAT FAVORS RECENT EVENTS OVER HISTORIC ONES whereas in MEMORY BIAS, it gives MORE IMPORTANCE TO THE MOST RECENT EVENT.   In brief, it is no less than a psychological phenomenon where a person can remember something which has happened recently.

If you are into trading, Recency Bias is your #1 enemy.  Why?  Because it tends to extrapolate the recent experiences that will happen to you in the future.  And if you are into investing and trading, Recency Bias is one of the biggest disasters that you may face because when investors try to invest, the Recency Bias skews the entire reality.

Truth is, there is always a huge gap between FACT and BIAS so our challenge now is how to overcome Recency Bias.  First off, avoid having a MYOPIC VIEW of things because that means you are constricting yourself to the four walls of the environment you're in.  And you yourself DON'T want to try SOMETHING NEW.  But since Recency Bias helps you to build your views based on the latest outcomes, try to overcome it by thinking about a bigger picture in your life.

Secondly, always try to work in with WHAT YOU HAVE IN CONTROL.  Setting realistic expectations is something that can put you down and bring false hopes in your life.  Always try to remember the fact that Recency Bias feeds into the belief that you have in your life.  

Most importantly, DON'T ever get swayed with the latest results, latest outcomes you had.  Results and numbers may seem so positive as the numbers are poppiing right in front of you.  But never forget that Recency Bias is a BRAIN ILLUSION.  Always try to understand that cyclicality comes with a lot of terrains.  There is not a smooth road that you can take to success.  Recency Bias is a brain illusion that happens when you see the latest issues.  It is your very brain tricking you into thinking that the same will happen again.  Be forewarned❗❗❗

Recency Bias

 Recency Bias

Being bias is not good per se but what makes this matter worse is when we get hit with RECENCY BIAS.  Multifarious events or results tend to be influenced and/or shaped up RECENCY BIAS.  It's the PAST that dictates the results, instead of the the very PRESENT moment, that very moment itself.

And how do we define RECENCY BIAS.  Either it's a premature assumption that something will happen again because it did happen recently or simply giving that heavy weight on something simply because it did happen recently.

Unfortunately, the cognitive part of us seem to be illuminated by those bulbs such that when one bulb gets busted, the cognitive part in us can vividly remember that it was the second bulb from the left that got busted.  On the other hand, if the RECENCY you could recall are successes or milestone achievements, that may [LIKELY] lead you to succeed and succeed more.  That's the streak most bemedaled competitors are motivated to the hilt.

Too bad, till now the market innovators have yet to invent 'eraserheads', tools that can erase out those RECENCIES in our cognitive part.  Either way, we should have heard of streaks.  Winning streaks. Losing streaks.  Those streaks of 'bad luck' when in fact and in truth, what dictated those losing streaks is RECENCY BIAS.

Too bad if we ourselves are stuck with RECENCY BIAS.  Those moments of turmoil when you can hardly literally move on because you were so damn frustrated with the turn of events such that things seem to have driven you many wedges deeper.  How to get over this dilemma?  Clear. Initialize. Reboot.  Restart things even if you need to start coldly.

Where and when you get trapped between headwinds and tailwinds, go for the latter.  Never get trapped by headwinds  Remember your life is your responsibility.  If you DONT hold yourself accountable enough, you will come up with the tons and tons of reasons why you can't do this and that.  Take that game-changing step dude.✅✅✅

Is Your Run 'UNEVEN' ?

Is Your Run 'UNEVEN' ?

Uneven runs and inconsistencies in life are part and parcel of the harsh realities we need to live with BUT here's the big BUT.  That can't just go on forever, just can't and shouldn't.  Yet, more often, we take things in stride and console ourselves that this is part of life.  But can we live a tattered life, riddled with rough patches and inconsistencies ? And how long and how far will that bring us forward from hereon ?

Peggy Noonan, the primary speechwriter of the late Former U.S. President Ronald Reagan once said it all that 'PART OF COURAGE IS SIMPLE CONSISTENCY'.  And at hindsight, we need to challenge ourselves as to how much effort is needed for us to exert to come up with the CONSISTENCY we deserve in life ?  And @ https://www.csus.edu/indiv/d/dowdenb/misc/inconsistency.htm of the California State University [Sacramento], the in-depth paper shares with us that inconsistency is at the very crux of logic.  And unless we gather to have that gumption and 'courage' to correct our inconsistency, there's nowhere you can go.

What exactly is the doctor's order where we're inconsistent ?  Why can't we summon RECENCY BIAS and challenge ourselves if whatever is most recent in us did make things better for us, for our lives ?  Unless and until you become very dissecting, you may falsely believe that everything will be fine, that there is nothing to correct, nothing to rectify.

Joseph Folkman shares us @ https://www.forbes.com/sites/joefolkman/2019/10/17/your-inconsistency-is-more-noticeable-than-you-think/?sh=736891e3d507 the CONSISTENCY INDEX summarized as follows:  Be a GOOD EXAMPLE, DON'T DOUBLE-SPEAK, KEEP UP TO YOUR PROMISES, STICK TO YOUR COMMITMENTS and TAKE THE EXTRA MILE, if need be. 

AND, can we dump off that cinema mindset wherein the most recent episode is at the top of our memory recall, such that, things get muddled and distorted because we tend to gloss over the positives and look the other way around for the flies in the ointment. How to stay consistent ?  Take it from Jill Brown @ https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/269718 wherein, in 3 foundational tenets [START by SEGMENTING, LEVERAGE on the POWER of SYSTEMS and HOLDING [yourself] ACCOUNTABLE, she wants us to be fully locked-in so that we remain focused on our goals to realize the dreams we  got.✅